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مقایسه روشهای رگرسیون لجستیک پروبیت و تحلیل ممیزی جهت شناسایی نواحی مساعد محیطی برای توسعه کشت گردو (مطالعه موردی شهرستان بافت) | ||
مهندسی بیوسیستم ایران | ||
مقاله 10، دوره 49، شماره 1، فروردین 1397، صفحه 95-105 اصل مقاله (740.16 K) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ijbse.2017.238736.664972 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
حامد ادب* 1؛ آزاده عتباتی2؛ محمد آرمین3؛ حسن ذبیحی4؛ نیلوفر دهقانی5 | ||
1گروه آب و هواشناسی، دانشکده جغرافیا و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه حکیم سبزواری | ||
2استادیار، گروه علوم و مهندسی محیط زیست، دانشگاه حکیم سبزواری | ||
3گروه مهندسی کشاورزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد سبزوار | ||
4سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی، دانشگاه تکنولوژی مالزی، اسکودای | ||
5گروه آب و هواشناسی و ژئومورفولوژی، دانشگاه حکیم سبزواری | ||
چکیده | ||
این پژوهش با هدف شناسایی مناطق مشابه با باغ های موجود گردو ازنظر عوامل شکل فیزیکی سطح زمین و اقلیمی بهمنظور تعیین نواحی مناسب و توسعه درختکاری گردو با استفاده از دو روش رگرسیون لجستیک و تحلیل ممیزی انجام شد. بدین منظور با توجه به شرایط محیطی مؤثر بر درختان گردو، دادههای میانگین دمای سالانه، بارش سالانه، بارش در خشکترین ماه، بارش در مرطوبترین ماه، ارتفاع، شیب و جهت شیب توپوگرافی استفاده گردید. نتایج دادههای اعتبار سنجی نشان داد که روش تحلیل ممیزی با 86 درصد از دقت بیشتری نسبت به رگرسیون لجستیک پروبیت با 75 درصد جهت توضیح درست مناطق مساعد جهت گسترش درختکاری گردو برخوردار است. مقدار شاخص لامبدای در روش تحلیل ممیزی نشان داد که بارش در خشکترین ماه با 99/0بیشترین تأثیر را بر تابع تشخیص نواحی مساعد داشتهاند. نواحی مناسب جهت توسعه کاشت درخت گردو در مناطق مرکزی، شمالی و شمال غربی شهرستان بافت است. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
مدلسازی رویشگاه بالقوه؛ سامانه اطلاعات جغرافیایی؛ رگرسیون لجستیک پروبیت؛ تحلیل ممیزی؛ گردو | ||
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