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آزمون منحنی محیط زیستی کوزنتس در ایران و کشورهای عضو اوپک: کاربردی از روش گشتاورهای تعمیم یافته | ||
| محیط شناسی | ||
| مقاله 10، دوره 43، شماره 2، شهریور 1396، صفحه 317-327 اصل مقاله (987.64 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jes.2017.63081 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| ابراهیم انواری* ؛ سمانه باقری؛ احمد صلاح منش | ||
| دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز | ||
| چکیده | ||
| رشد اقتصادی یکی از اهداف اصلی کشورهاست، ممکن است رسیدن به این هدف، به آلودگی‌های زیست‌محیطی منجر شود. مقاله حاضر برای نخستین بار به آزمون فرضیه کوزنتس با روش گشتاور تعمیم‌یافته در قالب دو مدل برای کشورهای عضو اوپک می‌پردازد. در این مطالعه فرضیه منحنی زیست‌محیطی کوزنتس برای کشورهای عضو اوپک، با استفاده از روش گشتاور تعمیم‌یافته برای دوره زمانی 2013-1992 بررسی شد. CO2 به عنوان بیشترین سهم در ترکیب گازهای گلخانه‌ای، برای آزمون فرضیه کوزنتس مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. بر اساس نتایج به‌دست آمده فرضیه منحنی زیست‌محیطی کوزنتس برای کشورهای اوپک در قالب هر دو مدل پذیرفته نشد، مسیر آلودگی این کشورها هنوز به سرعت صعودی می‌باشد و به شرایط نقطه بازگشت منحنی نرسیده است. در واقع میزان انتشار گاز دی اکسیدکربن در این کشورها در فرآیند رشد اقتصادی به‌طور مستمر افزایش می‌یابد. رشد شهرنشینی، رشد جمعیت، مصرف انرژی و تولید ناخالص داخلی حقیقی بر انتشار گاز گربنیک اثر مثبت و معنی‌داری در کشورهای عضو اوپک دارد. در بین کشورهای عضو اوپک، عربستان بیشترین انتشار گاز کربنیک سرانه و رشد اقتصادی را داراست و ایران جایگاه چهارم را در انتشار گاز کربنیک سرانه، رشد اقتصادی در کشورهای عضو اوپک دارد. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| ایران؛ آلودگی محیط زیست؛ کشورهای عضو اوپک؛ گشتاور تعمیم یافته؛ منحنی کوزنتس | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Environmental Kuznets Curve Test in The OPEC: | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Ebrahim Anvari؛ Samaneh Bagheri؛ | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| One of the main objectives of the country's economic growth may achieve this goal, lead to environmental pollution. Kuznets hypothesis test paper for the first time in two models with generalized method of moments for OPEC's findings. The Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis for OPEC countries, a generalized method of moments for the period 1992-2013 were analyzed. As the largest share of CO2 emissions in combination, were used to test the Kuznets hypothesis. Based on the results obtained Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis for individual countries was not accepted in the form of both models, in fact, the amount of carbon dioxide emissions in the process of economic growth in these countries has continually increased. Growing urbanization, population growth, energy consumption and real GDP positive and significant impact on emissions in this countries. Among OPEC members, Saudi Arabia's highest carbon emissions, economic growth and population growth and the country's fourth place in carbon emissions, economic growth and population growth in the OPEC countries. Kuznets curve relationship between pollution and per capita income began developing country, shows. After a certain per capita income, pollution levels begin to decline, because the country is able to invest in more efficient technologies and new production methods, it is. This curve associated with the development of the country. In the agriculture, the country has a per capita income and low pollution. When approaching the stage of industrialization, pollution increases. At low levels of development, quality and environmental degradation continued to work activities on natural resources and the limited quantities of biodegradable waste is limited. When the extraction of natural resources and agricultural activities and industrial mutation occurs worse, depletion of natural resources and generation of waste worse. At higher levels of development, structural changes in the industries related to information and services, high technology and demand for environmental quality has led to a steady decrease in the destruction of the environment. In 1987 report called Our Common Future, the concept of sustainable development was raised in the debate on environment versus development, was expressed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature and in 1980 was accepted. Supporters of the idea that economic growth, growth is the only way to provide the capital necessary to preserve the environment, but paying a high price to protect the environment, limit economic growth and competitiveness at the international level and reduces employment. Sustainable development aims to improve the investment environment and policies in order to prevent degradation and protect the environment. To achieve higher economic growth, energy consumption, the CGE model includes all the macro economy and energy is part of it. In this model, all markets and services are in balance supply and demand in a particular market affect other markets and can be static or dynamic. Supply and demand as a result of consumers maximize utility and producers maximize profit associated with each other through the elimination of price markets. Criticisms of the model is that in reality, all markets are in equilibrium. Keynesian models CGE models are close. Both models are sometimes referred to as econometric models. Keynesian the effects of transitional adjustment costs associated with the policy change, pay. CGE models are the best short-term analysis of the economy. Earth is a closed system energy use is done according to the laws of thermodynamics. Waste, waste and industrial waste in general, with raw materials, fuel and food input to the economy after deducting the accumulated material, are equal. Some economists, substitution patterns and innovation to reduce environmental impacts and environmental economics were presented, but the majority believed in the conflict. Matherials & Methods MODELS: LCOit = β0i + β1i LCOit-1 + β2i LGDPit +β3i (LGDP)2it + β4i LURBANit + β5i LENERGYit + Uit LCOit =β0i +β1 LCOt-1 +β2i LGDPit +β3i (LGDP)it2 +β4i LPOPit +β5i LENERGYit + Uit LGDP logarithm of real per capita GDP at constant prices 2005, (LGDP)2 , squared logarithm of real per capita GDP at constant prices 2005, LEnergy log of per capita energy consumption, LCO logarithm of carbon dioxide emissions, LURBAN growth of urbanization, LPOP population growth. The research period of 1992-2013 and the countries investigated OPEC countries include: Angola, Ecuador, Nigeria, Libya, Iraq, Iran, United Arabic Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Aljrayr, Qatar and Kuwait. All the necessary data for this study were collected from the World Bank. Generalized method of moments: By this method it is necessary first to estimate the model instrumental variables used in the model are specified. GMM estimator depends on the validity of the adjustment tools. This credit can test stipulated by Arellano and Bond (1991) tested. Sargan test the validity of the test instruments. Failure to reject the null hypothesis in this test shows evidence of the validity of instruments. Discussion of Results & Conclusions LGDP square was not confirmed, indicating that the Kuznets hypothesis could not be verified. Kuznets curve is not inverted U-shaped in these countries. These countries are part of the Kuznets curve upward. Dirt track of these countries is still rapidly ascending curve has not come to terms Nqth return. OPEC countries Kuznets hypothesis can not be confirmed in this study. In both models the energy consumption, and carbon dioxide emissions before and after the logarithm of GDP had the greatest influence on carbon emissions. developed countries need to support the production support environment. The environmental Kuznets curve views known in experimental models. The inverted U hypothesis of a relationship between environmental degradation and per capita income there. 1) installation of equipment cleaner emissions pollution. 2) taxes on pollution. 3) use of new technologies. 4) Improving research and development in clean technologies and environmentally friendly alternative. 5) management of energy consumption in accordance with the highest efficiency. 6) use of clean energy and renewable energy use in production. urbanization Due to the positive impact on the carbon dioxide emissions can be reduced by controlling the urban population and try to prevent it from emissions of carbon dioxide gas. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Iran, Environmental Pollution, OPEC, GMM, Kuznets Curve | ||
| مراجع | ||
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