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تبیین مفهوم ریسک و سنجش میزان ریسک لرزهای مناطق شهری (مطالعة موردی: نجفآباد) | ||
پژوهشهای جغرافیای انسانی | ||
مقاله 2، دوره 51، شماره 1، فروردین 1398، صفحه 1-21 اصل مقاله (1.75 M) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله علمی پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jhgr.2017.61600 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
سوگل فاضل* 1؛ مسعود تقوایی2؛ امیر محمودزاده3 | ||
1دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا و برنامهریزی شهری پژوهشگاه شاخصپژوه دانشگاه اصفهان | ||
2استاد گروه جغرافیا و برنامهریزی شهری دانشگاه اصفهان | ||
3رئیس پژوهشگاه مهندسی بحرانهای طبیعی شاخصپژوه، استادیار گروه عمران-زلزله | ||
چکیده | ||
بر اساس نقشة پهنهبندی خطر زلزله در ایران، بخش زیادی از این کشور در محدودة خطر نسبتاً متوسط روبهبالا قرار دارد. از سوی دیگر، دورههای غیرلرزهای بعضی گسلها در سدة بیستم (حتی آرامشی هزارساله) نشاندهندة لرزهزا نبودن این گسلها نیست. در این میان، قضاوت شهروندان از خطر باید بر این مبنا باشد که آنها در منطقهای زلزلهخیز سکونت دارند. برایناساس ضروری است ارزیابی ریسک لرزهای مناطق مختلف کشور با هدف کاهش خطرپذیری جوامع شهری در اولویت برنامهریزیها قرار بگیرد. در پژوهش کاربردی و توصیفی-تحلیلی حاضر، ضمن معرفی دیدگاهها و مدلهای مختلف مرتبط با مفهومشناسی ریسک و آسیبپذیری، ریسکپذیری لرزهای شهر نجفآباد بررسی شد. برای این منظور، از پارامترهای گوناگون کمی و کیفی براساس رویکرد تصمیمگیری چندمعیاره و روش تحلیل شبکه (ANP) و ارائة مدل کاربرد داشت. نتایج نشان میدهد حدود 60 درصد مساحت توسعهیافتة شهر - که دربرگیرندة ساختمانهای خشتی و آجر و آهن است - ریسکپذیری متوسط روبهبالایی دارد. با تطبیق نقشة تراکم جمعیت بر این پهنه، حدود یک چهارم جمعیت شهر (در بعضی قسمتها با تراکمی بین 70 تا 100 نفر در هکتار) خطرپذیری بالایی دارند. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
آسیبپذیری؛ ریسک؛ زمینلرزه؛ مخاطره؛ نجفآباد | ||
مراجع | ||
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