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شبیه‌سازی رواناب ناشی از ذوب برف تحت سناریوهای تغییر اقلیم در حوضة ارمند | ||
| اکوهیدرولوژی | ||
| مقاله 6، دوره 4، شماره 2، تیر 1396، صفحه 357-368 اصل مقاله (614.2 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ije.2017.61473 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| فاطمه تیرگرفاخری* 1؛ بهلول علیجانی2؛ پرویز ضیاییان فیروز آبادی3؛ مهری اکبری4 | ||
| 1دانشجوی دکتری آب و هواشناسی، دانشکدة جغرافیا، دانشگاه خوارزمی | ||
| 2استاد، دانشکدة جغرافیا، دانشگاه خوارزمی | ||
| 3دانشیار، دانشکدة جغرافیا، دانشگاه خوارزمی | ||
| 4استادیار، دانشکدة جغرافیا، دانشگاه خوارزمی | ||
| چکیده | ||
| تغییر اقلیم مسئلة زیست‌محیطی بزرگی است زیرا فرایندهای ذوب یخچالها و تراکمهای برف به تغییر اقلیم حساس‌اند. هدف این پژوهش، پیش‌بینی تغییرات آتی در پارامترهای اقلیمی، تخمین تغییرات در سطح پوشش برف، و رواناب ذوب برف تحت سناریوهای تغییر اقلیم در حوضة ارمند است. به‌منظور بررسی تأثیرات اقلیم بر بارش و دما در حوضة ارمند از سه مدل (NorESM1-M، IPSL-CM5A-LR و CSIRO-MK3.6.0) استفاده شد که تحت سناریوهای RCP8.5, RCP4.5, RCP2.6اجرا شدند. دما و بارش در چهار دورة آتی (2021-2030، 2031- 2040، 2041-2050 و 2051-2060) تحت هر سه سناریو محاسبه شدند. همچنین برای تعیین سطح پوشش برف در حوضه از تصاویر روزانة پوشش برف MODIS (Mod10A1) استفاده شده است. ارتباط بین مساحت پوشش برف با دما و بارش مشاهده‌شده بررسی و برای پیش‌بینی سطح پوشش برف در آینده استفاده شده است. نتایج نشان داد هر سه سناریوی RCP، افزایش دما و کاهش بارش و پوشش برف را پیش‌بینی میکنند. بررسی رواناب ذوب برف در دورة مشاهداتی (نوامبر 2000- می 2006) نشان داد حدود 7/47 درصد از رواناب سالانه در حوضه به ذوب برف مربوط است. بیشترین رواناب ذوب برف در طول فصل زمستان ایجاد شده است. سهم ذوب برف از مجموع آب تولید‌شده در طول پاییز و بهار به‌ترتیب 9/34 و 8/52 درصد است که انتظار میرود همراه با ذوب برف، رواناب در آینده حدود 12/0 متر مکعب بر ثانیه در هر سال کاهش یابد. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| تغییر اقلیم؛ حوضة ارمند؛ ذوب برف؛ مدل SRM؛ مدل‌های ریز‌مقیاس نمایی | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Simulation of snowmelt runoff under climate change scenarios in Armand basin | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Fateme Tirgar Fakheri1؛ Bohloul Alijani2؛ Parviz Zeaiean Firuzabadi3؛ Mehry Akbary4 | ||
| 1PhD Student of Climatology, College of Geography, Kharazmy University, Tehran, Iran | ||
| 2Associate Professor, Faculty of Geography, Kharazmy University, Tehran, Iran | ||
| 3Associate Professor, Faculty of Geography, Kharazmy University, Tehran, Iran | ||
| 4Associate Professor, Faculty of Geography, Kharazmy University, Tehran, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Climate change is a major environmental problem because melting processes of the glaciers and snow packs are sensitive to climate change. The current study aims to predict future changes in climatic parameters, estimate changes in snow covered area and snowmelt runoff under scenarios of climate change in Armand basin. To investigate the effect of climate on precipitation and temperature in Armand basin, three models (NorESM1-M, IPSL-CM5A-LR and CSIRO-MK3.6.0) were used under the scenarios RCP8.5, RCP4.5, RCP2.6. Temperature and precipitation in the next four periods (2021-2030, 2031- 2040, 2041-2050 and 2051-2060) under all three scenarios were calculated. Also, the daily images MODIS (Mod10A1) were used to determine the snow covered area in the basin. The relationship between the snow covered area with the observed temperature and precipitation was studied and the results have been used to predict future snow cover. The results showed that all three scenarios of RCP predict increased temperature and reduced precipitation and snow cover. The study of snowmelt runoff in the observation period (November 2000-May 2006) showed that about 47.7 of the annual runoff in the basin is related to snowmelt. Most snowmelt runoff volume has occurred during the winter. The contribution of total water produced by melting snow during the fall and spring was 34.9 and 52.8 percent, respectively; along with snowmelt, it is expected that runoff will be reduced by about 0.12 cubic meters per second per year. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| climate change, SRM model, Downscaling models, snow melt, Armand Basin | ||
| مراجع | ||
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