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Forecasting project duration by Earned Duration Management and Risk Management | ||
| Industrial Management Journal | ||
| مقاله 5، دوره 8، شماره 2، مهر 2016، صفحه 217-240 اصل مقاله (591.83 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: Research Paper | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/imj.2016.60656 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| Akbar Alamtabriz1؛ Farnoosh Khaledian* 2؛ Mostafa Mehdipour3 | ||
| 1Prof., in Management, Shahidbeheshti University, Tehran, Iran | ||
| 2M.Sc. Student Industrial Management, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran | ||
| 3MSc. Student Biomedical Engineering, Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran | ||
| چکیده | ||
| Being observed frequently that projects cannot achieve to their plan duration and their budget. Utilizing retrospective method is one of the reasons for this problem. In this research two method, Earned Duration Management and risk management, has been used to remove the gap of the plan and the reality; this enable the project to utilize both high accuracy of the first method and prophecy of the second tool. First, control limits were made by Monte Carlo simulation; then, the risks were recognized, after that, project was simulated under the condition that assumed critical risk has happened. At the end, if the simulated indexes violate the limits it will be a signal that program should be revised. The final estimated duration is about two month more than the row plan, that it shows the necessity of taking accounts of risks during planning. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| Earned Duration Management؛ Risk Management؛ project statistical control؛ Risk Failure Mode and Effect Analysis | ||
| مراجع | ||
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