پیوندهای مفید
اخبار و اعلانات
آمار
| تعداد نشریات | 163 |
| تعداد شمارهها | 6,788 |
| تعداد مقالات | 73,126 |
| تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 133,098,981 |
| تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 104,122,948 |
Forecasting project duration by Earned Duration Management and Risk Management | ||
| Industrial Management Journal | ||
| مقاله 5، دوره 8، شماره 2، مهر 2016، صفحه 217-240 اصل مقاله (591.83 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: Research Paper | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/imj.2016.60656 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| Akbar Alamtabriz1؛ Farnoosh Khaledian* 2؛ Mostafa Mehdipour3 | ||
| 1Prof., in Management, Shahidbeheshti University, Tehran, Iran | ||
| 2M.Sc. Student Industrial Management, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran | ||
| 3MSc. Student Biomedical Engineering, Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran | ||
| چکیده | ||
| Being observed frequently that projects cannot achieve to their plan duration and their budget. Utilizing retrospective method is one of the reasons for this problem. In this research two method, Earned Duration Management and risk management, has been used to remove the gap of the plan and the reality; this enable the project to utilize both high accuracy of the first method and prophecy of the second tool. First, control limits were made by Monte Carlo simulation; then, the risks were recognized, after that, project was simulated under the condition that assumed critical risk has happened. At the end, if the simulated indexes violate the limits it will be a signal that program should be revised. The final estimated duration is about two month more than the row plan, that it shows the necessity of taking accounts of risks during planning. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| Earned Duration Management؛ Risk Management؛ project statistical control؛ Risk Failure Mode and Effect Analysis | ||
| مراجع | ||
|
Akbari, A. & Salehipoor, A. (2010). Statistical Control of Time and Cost Performance Indices in Construction Projects: A Case Study. Journal of Industrial Management Studies University of Alame Tabatabai, 27:147-163. (in Persian)
Alam Tabriz, A., Farrokh, M., Mosalmani, N. & Hosseini-nia, H. (2013). A Combined Approach of the Earned Value Management and the Risk Management for Estimating Final Results of Projects in Fuzzy Environment. Business Management and Strategy 4(1), 32.
Alam Tabriz, A. & Hamzei, E. (2011). Analysis & Assessment project risks by integrated approach of risk management in PMBOK standard and RFMEA method. Journal of Industrial Management, (1), 20-33. (in Persian) Alam Tabriz, A. & Rahimi, A. (2009).different Approaches of production and operation management. Tehran. Bazargani press. (in Persian)
Anbari, F. T. (2003). Earned value project management method and extensions. Project management journal, 34(4), 12-23.
Azar, A. & Sagalorzade, S. & Rajabzadeh, A. (2012). "Fuzzy Simulation in Uncertain Circumstances". Journal of Industrial Management University of Tehran, 2: 1-20.(in Persian)
Colin, J. & Vanhoucke, M. (2014). Setting tolerance limits for statistical project control using earned value management. Omega, 49, 107-122.
Dori, B., Hamzei, E. (2009). Determining the Best Responding Strategy to Project Risk Using ANP Technique (Case Study: North Azadegan Oil Field Development Project)". Journal of Industrial Management, 2(4);75-92. (in Persian)
Henderson, K. (2004). Further developments in earned schedule. The measurable news, 1(1), 15-22.
Jacob, D. S., & Kane, M. (2004). Forecasting schedule completion using earned value metrics revisited. The Measurable News,1(11), 7.
Jafarnezhad, A. & Yosefi Zenuz, R. (2008). A Fuzzy Model of Ranking Risks at Petropars Company’s Excavation of Oil Well Projects. Journal of Industrial Management University of Tehran, 1:21-38. (in Persian)
Jorion, P. (2007) Value at risk: the new benchmark for managing financial risk. Vol. 3. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Khamooshi, H. & Cioffi, D.F. (2012). Uncertainty in task duration and cost estimates: Fusion of probabilistic forecasts and deterministic scheduling. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 139(5), 488-497.
Khamooshi, H. & Golafshani, H. (2014). EDM: Earned Duration Management, a new approach to schedule performance management and measurement. International Journal of Project Management, 32(6), 1019-1041.
Kim, E., Wells, W. G., & Duffey, M. R. (2003). A model for effective implementation of Earned Value Management methodology. International Journal of Project Management, 21(5), 375-382.
Land, R. (2007). project risk management handbook (threats and opportunities). 2nd. ed., Press: office of statewide project management improvement.
Lipke, W. (1999). Applying management reserve to software project management. Journal of Defense Software Engineering, 17-21.
Lipke, W. (2003). Schedule is Different, The Measurable News, 10-15.
Lipke, W., Zwikael, O., Henderson, K. & Abbari, F. (2009). Prediction of project outcome: The application of statistical methods to earned value management and earned schedule performance indexes. International journal of project management, 27(4), 400-407.
Naeni, L. & Shadrokh, S. & Salehipour, A. (2011). A fuzzy approach for the earned value management. International Journal of Project Management, 29(6): 764-772.
Nazari, A. Forsatkar, E. & Kiafar, B. Management in projects. Deputy planning and strategic supervision presidency of the Islamic republic of Iran (695). (in Persian) Olfat, L. & Khosravani, F. & Jalali, R. (2012)." recognition & prioritizing risks using PMBOK standard and Fuzzy approach". Journal of Industrial Management Studies University of Alame Tabatabai. 19:147-163. (in Persian) Project management institute. (2008). A Guide to the project management body of knowledge.
Santos, Flávio Roberto Souza dos, & Sandro Cabral. (2008). FMEA and PMBOK applied to project risk management. JISTEM-Journal of Information Systems and Technology Management, 5(2), 347-364.
Sayadi, A. & Hajati, M. & Monzajeri, M. (2011). Risk Management in Tunnel Construction Using MADM Techniques. Journal of Industrial Management University of Tehran, 7; 99-116.(in Persian) | ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 2,164 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 2,619 |
||
سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی. قدرت گرفته از سیناوب