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ارائه مدل نوین در ارزیابی ریسک مخاطرات مرکب (زلزله و حریق).مورد:مناطق 1 و 6 شهرداری شیراز | ||
| پژوهشهای جغرافیای انسانی | ||
| مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده، انتشار آنلاین از تاریخ 14 دی 1395 | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله علمی پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jhgr.2017.60019 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
لیلا عشرتی  1؛ امیر محمود زاده2؛ مسعود تقوایی 3
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| 1شهرداری | ||
| 2ریاست | ||
| 3استاد | ||
| چکیده | ||
| توسعه مدل های ارزیابی ریسک کلیه مخاطرات محیط های سکونتگاهی ، به عنوان مبنایی برای برنامه ریزی می باشد. بنابراین، بکارگیری یک رویکرد جامع برای ارزیابی تاثیر و احتمال رخداد کلیه مخاطرات تهدیدکننده جوامع ، در کاهش آسیب پذیری بسیار موثر می باشد.در این مطالعه با هدف برقراری ارتباط منطقی میان مخاطرات به ارائه مدلی نوین در ارزیابی ریسک مخاطرات مرکب پرداخته می شود. روش تحلیل دلفی در راستای تعریف پارامترهای مدل کاربست می گردد ، همچنین الگویی معیار محور در ارزیابی آسیب پذیری کالبدی و انسانی ارائه می گردد. تاثیرات دومینویی در بررسی آسیب پذیری مخاطرات مرکب بر اساس روش تجزیه و تحلیل درخت واقعه می باشد. در این راستا مدل نوین توسط نرم افزار HAZUS با ارائه نقشه های آسیب پذیری برای سناریو های مختلف مخاطره منفرد(مخاطره محرک) و مخاطرات مرکب (مخاطرات محرک و ثانویه) و بدنبال آن با بیان نقشه ریسک کلی مخاطرات مرکب به عنوان خروجی نهایی ،تکمیل خواهد شد. تجزیه و تحلیل بر اساس روش کمی و کیفی صورت خواهد پذیرفت .تخمین آسیب پذیری مستقیم کالبدی در ساختمان های عمومی ، تسهیلات حساس و آسیب پذیری مستقیم انسانی تحت عنوان تلفات انسانی مورد نظر می باشد. نتایج نمایانگر تعداد667 ساختمان با سطح ریسک بالا برابر با مساحت47/639660 متر مربع از محدوده مورد مطالعه می باشد. در این مطالعه تاکید اصلی در ارائه مدل نوین ارزیابی ریسک مخاطرات مرکب بر روی نمایش روابط میان مخاطرات مرکب می باشد که با کاربرد آن در محدوده مورد مطالعه کاربست می گردد.روی نمایش روابط میان مخاطرات مرکب می باشد که با کاربرد آن در محدوده مورد مطالعه کاربست می گردد. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| ارزیابی ریسک؛ مخاطرات مرکب؛ روش دلفی؛ ارزیابی آسیب پذیری معیار محور؛ روش تحلیل درخت واقعه | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Presentation of a New Model for Multi Hazards Risk Assessment (Earthquake and Fire) ( Districts of 1 and 6 Shiraz Municipality) | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Many built-up areas are threatened by multiple hazards which pose significant threat to humans, buildings and infrastructure. However, the analysis of the physical vulnerability towards multiple hazards is a field that still receives little attention although vulnerability analysis and assessment can contribute significantly to risk reduction efforts. In this paper, an indicator based vulnerability approach, the PTVA (Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment), was further developed to be applicable in a multi-hazard context. Finally, presented the number of people injured and killed in different scenarios of human vulnerability caused by fire following the earthquake, in three times in districts 1 and 6 municipal city in Fars province, Iran. Analysis of the data collected according to the methodology of quantitative analysis using methodology and software HAZUS. The estimate of ultimate vulnerability suggests that on the whole the worst scenario, 02:00 am, with the greatest number of casualties, the number of 10918.79 and 27517.72 injured people were killed, a total of 38,436.5 injured (wounded and killed) in the 6th district of Shiraz.Many built-up areas are threatened by multiple hazards which pose significant threat to humans, buildings and infrastructure. However, the analysis of the physical vulnerability towards multiple hazards is a field that still receives little attention although vulnerability analysis and assessment can contribute significantly to risk reduction efforts. In this paper, an indicator based vulnerability approach, the PTVA (Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment), was further developed to be applicable in a multi-hazard context. Finally, presented the number of people injured and killed in different scenarios of human vulnerability caused by fire following the earthquake, in three times in districts 1 and 6 municipal city in Fars province, Iran. Analysis of the data collected according to the methodology of quantitative analysis using methodology and software HAZUS. The estimate of ultimate vulnerability suggests that on the whole the worst scenario, 02:00 am, with the greatest number of casualties, the number of 10918.79 and 27517.72 injured people were killed, a total of 38,436.5 injured (wounded and killed) in the 6th district of Shiraz. Many built-up areas are threatened by multiple hazards which pose significant threat to humans, buildings and infrastructure. However, the analysis of the physical vulnerability towards multiple hazards is a field that still receives little attention although vulnerability analysis and assessment can contribute significantly to risk reduction efforts. In this paper, an indicator based vulnerability approach, the PTVA (Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment), was further developed to be applicable in a multi-hazard context. Finally, presented the number of people injured and killed in different scenarios of human vulnerability caused by fire following the earthquake, in three times in districts 1 and 6 municipal city in Fars province, Iran. Analysis of the data collected according to the methodology of quantitative analysis using methodology and software HAZUS. The estimate of ultimate vulnerability suggests that on the whole the worst scenario, 02:00 am, with the greatest number of casualties, the number of 10918.79 and 27517.72 injured people were killed, a total of 38,436.5 injured (wounded and killed) in the 6th district of Shiraz. Many built-up areas are threatened by multiple hazards which pose significant threat to humans, buildings and infrastructure. However, the analysis of the physical vulnerability towards multiple hazards is a field that still receives little attention although vulnerability analysis and assessment can contribute significantly to risk reduction efforts. In this paper, an indicator based vulnerability approach, the PTVA (Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment), was further developed to be applicable in a multi-hazard context. Finally, presented the number of people injured and killed in different scenarios of human vulnerability caused by fire following the earthquake, in three times in districts 1 and 6 municipal city in Fars province, Iran. Analysis of the data collected according to the methodology of quantitative analysis using methodology and software HAZUS. The estimate of ultimate vulnerability suggests that on the whole the worst scenario, 02:00 am, with the greatest number of casualties, the number of 10918.79 and 27517.72 injured people were killed, a total of 38,436.5 injured (wounded and killed) in the 6th district of Shiraz. Many built-up areas are threatened by multiple hazards which pose significant threat to humans, buildings and infrastructure. However, the analysis of the physical vulnerability towards multiple hazards is a field that still receives little attention although vulnerability analysis and assessment can contribute significantly to risk reduction efforts. In this paper, an indicator based vulnerability approach, the PTVA (Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment), was further developed to be applicable in a multi-hazard context. Finally, presented the number of people injured and killed in different scenarios of human vulnerability caused by fire following the earthquake, in three times in districts 1 and 6 municipal city in Fars province, Iran. Analysis of the data collected according to the methodology of quantitative analysis using methodology and software HAZUS. The estimate of ultimate vulnerability suggests that on the whole the worst scenario, 02:00 am, with the greatest number of casualties, the number of 10918.79 and 27517.72 injured people were killed, a total of 38,436.5 injured (wounded and killed) in the 6th district of Shiraz. Many built-up areas are threatened by multiple hazards which pose significant threat to humans, buildings and infrastructure. However, the analysis of the physical vulnerability towards multiple hazards is a field that still receives little attention although vulnerability analysis and assessment can contribute significantly to risk reduction efforts. In this paper, an indicator based vulnerability approach, the PTVA (Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment), was further developed to be applicable in a multi-hazard context. Finally, presented the number of people injured and killed in different scenarios of human vulnerability caused by fire following the earthquake, in three times in districts 1 and 6 municipal city in Fars province, Iran. Analysis of the data collected according to the methodology of quantitative analysis using methodology and software HAZUS. The estimate of ultimate vulnerability suggests that on the whole the worst scenario, 02:00 am, with the greatest number of casualties, the number of 10918.79 and 27517.72 injured people were killed, a total of 38,436.5 injured (wounded and killed) in the 6th district of Shiraz. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Multi Hazards, risk assessment, event tree analysis, delfi method, relative vulnerability Assessment | ||
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آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 1,696 |
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