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بررسی و تحلیل فضایی- ژئواکونومی مناسبات تجاری ایران با حوزۀ سیآیاس
|مطالعات اوراسیای مرکزی|
|مقاله 11، دوره 8، شماره 2، مهر 1394، صفحه 343-364 اصل مقاله (953.41 K)|
|نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی|
|شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jcep.2015.56857|
|علی ولیقلی زاده|
|استادیار جغرافیای سیاسی، دانشگاه مراغه|
|بنابر نتایج این نوشتار، برتری جریان واردات ایران بر مناسبات تجاری، حاکمیت جریان غیرپویا بر ماهیت کلی مناسبات تجاری، نزول جایگاه بیشتر جمهوریهای سیآیاس در بخش صادرات ایران و درمقابل تقویت جایگاه آنها در بخش واردات ایران، ویژگی اصلی ژئواکونومیک روابط تجاری (1380 - 1391) ایران با حوزة سیآیاس است. باوجود تبیین دلایل افزایش مناسبات تجاری متقابل از جهت واقعیتهای اقتصادی -جغرافیایی (ظرفیتهای اقتصادی خوب و موقعیت مواصلاتی راهبردی ایران و در مقابل ضعف اقتصادی بخش شایان توجه حوزة سیآیاس و انزوای جغرافیایی آن)، هماکنون بنابر تحلیلهای فضایی از ماهیت مناسبات تجاری ایران با حوزة سیآیاس، روند جاری در مناسبات تجاری دو طرف در بخشهای مختلف تجاری تعادل ژئواکونومیک و فضایی مناسبی ندارد. حتی گاهی روند جاری با واقعیتهای فضایی، هیچ تناسب منطقی ندارد و اصل مکمل ژئواکونومیک در مناسبات دو طرف مطرح نیست. بنابر نتایج این نوشتار، تعادل ژئواکونومیک این مناسبات بهشکل کامل بهنفع طرف مقابل است و بهظاهر بخش محدودی از حوزة سیآیاس کانون نفوذ ژئواکونومیک ایران محسوب میشود. درواقع تحلیل سادة ژئواکونومیک از ماهیت این مناسبات، انقباض در گسترة جغرافیایی توان اقتصادی ایران در حوزة سیآیاس و درپی آن کاهش توان رقابت اقتصادی آن در معادلات ژئواکونومیک این حوزه را نشان میدهد. |
2. CIS (Commonwealth Independent States)
|ایران؛ تجارت خارجی؛ حوزة سیآیاس؛ ژئواکونومی؛ مناسبات تجاری|
|عنوان مقاله [English]|
|The Spatial-Geo-Economical Analysis of Iran Trade Relations with CIS|
|Assistant Professor of Political Geography, Maragheh University, Iran|
|From the perspective of the states that their foreign policy is based on geo-economy, the economy is the most important mechanism of influence in target areas. Therefore, with the strengthening of trade relations would be in an appropriate level to increase the mutual relations. After the independence of central Eurasian states, geographical - political events of Central Eurasia led to the creation of new economic and political relations at the heart of Eurasia, especially in creation and booming of new markets for businesses in this region. This is while Iran as one of the most important neighboring states has a suitable strategic position to capture trade markets of this region.|
Despite the fact that the promotion of mutual commercial- economic relations entirely in terms of economic - geographic facts, including relatively suitable economic capacities and strategic transportation position of Iran and the economic weakness of the majority of CIS countries and geographical isolation has a causal explanation, but based on the current facts and events, it seems that despite the recent relative increase in mutual trade relations, yet because of various reasons, Iran has not been successful in the definition and introduction of its appropriate geo-economic position in the heart of the Eurasian transportation roads.
According to the available evidence, in addition to the fluctuations of the commercial value of Iran’s trade relations with CIS countries, during the years 2001 to 2012, Iran's exports to this region with 202 percent increase has had about 16970 million dollars. At the same time, Iran's imports from this region were recorded with 79 percent increase to the value of 24081 million dollars, which is different about 7111 million dollars whit the total exports. So, at first sight the commercial and economic value of Iran's total trade with the CIS is negative. In other words, the commercial value of these relations is about 41051 million dollars that of which the commercial value of Iran's total imports of this region is about 5.1 times of Iranian exports.
In the overall evaluation of Iran's trade relations with the CIS countries, in general, despite the increasing level of mutual trade relations from 2001 to 2012 (with 125 percent between 2314 and 5198 million dollars), the mainstream of trade relations, in terms of quality is not satisfactory. This is particularly important because of the significant increase in the level of trade relations in Iranian imports section, whereas the increase in the Iranian exports is significant only in trade relations with some of the CIS countries.
Now, given the above discussion, in fact, this research along with statistical study and analysis of Iran’s trade relations with CIS countries, following the spatial - geo-economics analysis of the mainstream of business mutual relations. So the question is that, in terms of the principles of geo-economics how is that the general nature of Iran's trade relations with CIS countries? In this regard, this research will be done in accordance with the following hypothesis.
It seems that spatially - geo-economically there is no balance and much success in the general nature of Iran's trade relations with CIS countries.
The research has been done by using descriptive - analytical method, in particular descriptive analysis of the raw data statistics of Iran’s trade relations with CIS countries and spatial analysis of the deductive models and the cluster analysis models extracted from the nature of trade mutual relations. In fact, given the qualitative nature of research, statistical raw data is evaluated in the form of descriptive analysis through the deductive reasoning and using the concept of geo-economics on the overall trend of trade relations. In this research, all of the analyses are the result of the author's extractive statistical data from the raw statistical data of Iran's foreign trade with the CIS countries during 2001-2012.
According to results of this research, the main geo-economical feature of Iran’s Trade relations with CIS during years (2001-2012) is the complete leading of Iran imports, the dominance of the Non-dynamic trend of the trade relations, the place falling of the most CIS in the field of Iran’s export and reciprocally their place enhancement in the field of Iran’s import. Indeed, despite the causal elucidation to the enhancing of the mutual trade relations due to economic-geographic facts, now according to spatial analysis of the Iran trade relations with CIS, current trend in the different parts of mutual trade relations does not have a suitable geo-economical and spatial balance. Even sometimes this trend is not in common with geographic realities and geo-economical complementary principle not poses in mutual trade relations. So, according to results of this research, the geo-economical balance of relations is quite opponent advantageous and apparently the Iranian geo-economical influence area in CIS is limited. Indeed, the contraction on the geographic area of Iranian economic power in CIS, and eventually the decline of its economic competitiveness power in the geo-economical equation of this region is a simple geo-economical explanation of these relations.
Now, according to the current trend, despite the high commercial value and volume of total trade relations of Iran with some of the CIS countries, it can be seen the clear and practical influence and the spatial dominance as well as the geo-economic acting of the economic power of Iran only in the context of trade relations with states like Armenia and Tajikistan. In fact, apart from above mentioned states, Iran is not among the main trading partners of none of the CIS countries and apparently from the perspective of geo-economics and spatial distribution, there is not to be seen any geographical balance and much success in the general nature of the trade mutual relations.
|CIS countries, Foreign Trade, geo-economics, Iran, trade relations|
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