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تهیة نقشة حساسیت به خطر زمین‌لغزش و ارزیابی آن با استفاده از تحلیل آماری رگرسیون لجستیک | ||
| نشریه علمی - پژوهشی مرتع و آبخیزداری | ||
| مقاله 10، دوره 67، شماره 4، بهمن 1393، صفحه 617-629 اصل مقاله (821.4 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jrwm.2015.53478 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| حمید رضا مرادی* 1؛ مریم دشتی مرویلی2؛ علیرضا ایلدرمی3 | ||
| 1دانشکده منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، دکتری جغرافیای طبیعی | ||
| 2دانشگاه تربیت مدرس | ||
| 3دانشگاه ملایر | ||
| چکیده | ||
| هدف از این تحقیق پهنه‌بندی خطر زمین‌لغزش در حوضة آبخیز سیاه‌دره با استفاده از مدل آماری رگرسیون لجستیک است. بدین منظور، نخست نقاط لغزشی با استفاده از عکس‌های هوایی و بازدید‌های میدانی مشخص و متعاقب آن نقشة پراکنش زمین‌لغزش منطقه تهیه شد. سپس، هر یک از عوامل مؤثر در وقوع زمین‌لغزش در منطقة مورد مطالعه از قبیل شیب، جهت شیب، ارتفاع، لیتولوژی، کاربری اراضی، فاصله از جاده، فاصله از شبکة آبراهه، فاصله از گسل، و نقشة همباران در محیط GIS تهیه شد. داده‌های مذکور در فرمت‌های برداری و رستری در سامانة اطلاعات جغرافیایی ذخیره شد و برای اعمال تحلیل‌های مبتنی بر مدل لجستیک استفاده گردید. تجزیه و تحلیل لجستیک با استفاده از نرم‌افزارARC GIS 9.2 و SPSS صورت گرفت. نتایج نشان داد عوامل شیب، ارتفاع، بارندگی، فاصله از آبراهه، و فاصله از گسل به‌ترتیب مهم‌ترین عوامل وقوع لغزش در منطقه‌اند. بیشتر لغزشهای منطقه در کلاسهای شیب 22/22 تا 33/33 درصد، ارتفاع 2350 ـ 2500 متر، و بارندگی 473 ـ 523 میلی‌متر قرار گرفته است. 50 درصد زمین‌لغزش‌ها در فاصلة 30 متری از آبراهه قرار گرفته است. در این منطقه، اکثر لغزشها تا فاصلة 300 متری از گسلها اتفاق افتادهاند. صحتِ مدل با سه روش ارزیابی شد. نتایج به‌دست‌آمده از هر سه روش برای حضور همة متغیر‌ها به‌ترتیب عبارت است از: 2/98 درصد، 692/0، و 519/0. بدین ترتیب، نشان داده شد که میزان دقت مدل آماری لجستیک در تهیة نقشة حساسیت به خطر لغزش در منطقة مورد مطالعه بسیار بالاست. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| حوضة آبخیز سیاه‌دره؛ رگرسیون لجستیک؛ زمین‌لغزش؛ سامانة اطلاعات جغرافیایی | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Land slide hazard Susceptibility Mapping and its Evaluation Using the Statistics Analysis logistic Regression | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Hamid Reza Moradi1؛ | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| ABSTRACT Aim Of this research is landslide hazard zoning in Syahdare watershed using logistic regression. Therefore, outset landslide points recognized using air photography and extensive field studies. Then distribution of landslide map was makes. Then each effective element on landslide occurred for example slope, aspect, elevation, litho logy, land use, distance of road, distance of drainage, distance of fault and precipitation map makes in GIS environment. These data were saved in raster and vector format in GIS soft ware and they used for analysis with logistic regression. Logistic analysis obtained by Arc GIS 9.2 soft ware and SPSS. Results showed the most important elements in Land slide occurred in this area are slope, elevation, precipitation, distance of drainage and distance of fault respectively. Most of the land slides have occurred in the classes of 10 to 15 degree slope, elevation of 2350-2500 meters, precipitation (473-523 mm) are located. 50% Landslide is located at a distance of 30 meters of the stream. In this region the most landslides are occurrence in the 300 meter to fault distance. While the from 500 meter distance to the fault reduced number and susceptibility to landslides. The evaluation of accuracy model and the results obtained with three methods for the presence of all variables, 98.2 percent, 0.692 and 0.519 respectively. So showed that logistic regression had high accuracy in making landslide susceptibility map in study area. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| landslide, Logistic regression, Geographical Information System, Syahdare watershed | ||
| مراجع | ||
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