طراحی مدلی نوین جهت ایجاد چارچوب سناریوهای آیندة سازمان با رویکرد برنامه‌ریزی سناریو مورد مطالعه: مرکز آمار ایران

 

آذر، عادل؛ رجب‌زاده، علی (1385). تصمیم‌گیری کاربردی(MADM). نگاه دانش، تهران.

بازرگان، عباس (1378). مقدمه­ای بر روش‌های تحقیق کیفی و آمیخته؛ رویکردهای متداول در علوم رفتاری. دیدار، تهران.

دانائی‌فرد، حسن؛ الوانی، سیدمهدی؛ آذر، عادل (1389). روش‌شناسی پژوهش کمّی در مدیریت: رویکردی جامع. صفار، تهران.

گوهری‌فر، مصطفی (1391). ارائة تصویر آیندة سازمان با استفاده از برنامه‌ریزی سناریو: مورد مطالعه مرکز آمار ایران، پایان‌نامة کارشناسی ارشد، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران.

ناظمی، امیر؛ قدیری، روح‌اله (1385). آینده‎نگاری از مفهوم تا اجرا. مرکز صنایع نوین، تهران.

 

Ariel, A. (1989). “Delphi forecast of the dry bulk shipping industry in the year 2000, Marti”. Policy Manage, 16(4), 305–336.

Pal, A.; Maji, S.; Sharma, O.P.; Babu, M.K.G. (2009). “Vehicular emissions: estimation, future prediction and control strategies for the capital city of India“. Int. J. Appl. Eng.

Res, 4(7),1391–1411.

Abadie, F.; Friedewald, M.; Weber, K.M. (2010). “Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries: anticipating value chain transformations and need for policy action“. Sci. Public Pol, 37(1), 19–30.

Kropp, F. (2003). “Changing values: a 2020 vision“. J. Euromarket, 12(3), 79–97.

Tseng, F.; Cheng, A.; Peng, Y. (2009). “Assessing market penetration combining scenario analysis, Delphi, and the technological substitution model: the case of the OLED TV market, Technol. Forecast”. Soc. Change, 76(7), 897–909.

Hupkes, G. (1974). “Delphi opinion poll Fuchan I“. Transportation, 3(1), 59–81.

Von der Gracht, H.A.; Darkow, I. (2010). “Scenarios for the logistics services industry: a Delphi-based analysis for 2025“. Int. J. Prod. Econ.127(1), 46–59.

Gómez-Limón, J.A.; Gómez-Ramos, A.; Sanchez Fernandez, G. (2009). “Foresight analysis of agricultural sector at regional level“. Futures, 41(5), 313–324.

Fleming, J.E. (1979). “The future of U.S. government–corporate relations“. Long Range Plann., 12 (4), 20–26.

Czaplicka-Kolarz, K.; Stańczyk, K.; Kapusta, K. (2009). Technology foresight for a vision of energy sector development in Poland till 2030;Delphi survey as an element of

Technology fore sighting“. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change, 76(3),327–338.

Keeney, S.; Mckenna, H.; Felicity, H. (2010). The Delphi Technique in Nursing and Health Research, New York, John Wiley & Sons.

Lasswell, H. D. (1967). "Projecting the Future". 25 September (mimeo). Cultures of the Future, The Hague: Mouton.

Höjer, M. (1998). “Transport telematics in urban systems—a back casting Delphi study“. Transport. Res, 3(6), 445–463.

Volman, M. (2005). “A variety of roles for a new type of teacher educational technology and the teaching profession“. Teach. Teach. Educ., 21(1), 15–31.

Waissbluth, M.; De Gortari, A. (1990). “A methodology for science and technology planning based upon economic scenarios and Delphi techniques – the case of

Mexican agroindustry“. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change, 37(4), 383–397.

Wilenius, M.; Tirkkonen, J. (1997). Climate in the making“. Futures. 29(9), 845–862.

Sviden, O. (1988). Scenarios: on expert generated scenarios for long range infrastructure planning of transportation and energy systems“. Technol. Forecast Soc.

Change., 33(2), 159–178.

Zuber, P.L.F.; Mann, J.M.; Paccaud, F.; Reich, M.R.; Turoff, M. (1996). “Introducing a first AIDS vaccine in Switzerland: a policy Delphi analysis“. Soc. Prev. Med., 41(2),

126–127.

Tapio, P. (2002). “Disaggregative policy Delphi: using cluster analysis as a tool for systematic scenario formation“. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change, 70(1), 83–101.

Rikkonen, P.; Tapio, P. (2009). “Future prospects of alternative agro-based bioenergy use in Finland—constructing scenarios with quantitative and qualitative Delphi Data“. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change., 76(7), 978–990.

Bijl, R. (1992). “Delphi in a future scenario study on mental health and mental health care“. Futures, 24(3), 232–250.

Schwartz, Peter (1991). The art of the long view. New York, Doubleday Currency.

Slaughter, R. A. (1993) "Futures Concepts". Futures, 25(3), 289-314.

Eschenbach, T.G.; Geistauts, G.A. (1985). “A Delphi forecast for Alaska“. Interfaces, 15(6), 100–109.

Gordon, T.J. (2007). “Energy forecasts using a “Roundels” approach to running a Delphi study“. Foresight, 9(2), 27–35.

Postma, T.J.B.M.; Alers, J.C.; Terpstra, S.; Zuurbier, A. (2007). “Medical technology decisions in The Netherlands: how to solve the dilemma of technology foresight versus

Market research?”. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change, 74(9), 1823–1833.

Al-Saleh,Y. (2009). “Renewable energy scenarios for major oil-producing nations: the case of Saudi Arabia“. Futures, 41(9), 650–662.

Toffler, Alvin. (1978). Foreword. In Magoroh Maruyama & Arthur M. Harkins (Eds.), Cultures of the Future (pp.ix-xi). The Hague, The Netherlands, Mouton.

Shiftan, Y.; Kaplan, S.; Hakkert, S. (2003). “Scenario building as a tool for planning a sustainable transportation system“. Transport. Res., 8(5), 323–342.