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تحلیل انرژی و اقتصادی تولید گل محمدی با بهرهگیری از یادگیری ماشین: مطالعه موردی شهرستان دامغان | ||
مهندسی بیوسیستم ایران | ||
دوره 56، شماره 2، شهریور 1404، صفحه 13-30 اصل مقاله (1.97 M) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ijbse.2025.393681.665595 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
سیدامید داودالموسوی1؛ فرزانه بهادری* 2؛ شاهین رفیعی1 | ||
1گروه مهندسی مکانیک ماشینهای کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران | ||
2مرکز تحقیقات کشاورزی و آموزش کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی استان سمنان، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، سمنان، ایران | ||
چکیده | ||
این مطالعه باهدف تحلیل انرژی و اقتصادی تولید گل محمدی در شهرستان دامغان و مدلسازی مصرف بهینه نهادهها با استفاده از الگوریتمهای یادگیری ماشین انجام شد. دادههای موردنیاز از طریق پرسشنامه و مصاحبه جمعآوری شد. نتایج نشان داد که کل انرژی مصرفی در تولید گل محمدی 43438 مگاژول بر هکتار است که برق با 6/79 درصد بیشترین سهم را در مصرف انرژی داشتند. شاخص بهرهوری انرژی 02/0 کیلوگرم بر مگاژول به دست آمد که نشاندهنده اتلاف انرژی قابلتوجه در نظام تولیدی است. از سوی دیگر، تحلیل اقتصادی حاکی از سود خالص 395/44 میلیون تومان در هکتار و نسبت فایده به هزینه 07/2 بود که بیانگر توجیه اقتصادی مناسب تولید گل محمدی علیرغم مصرف انرژی بالا است .برای مدلسازی و پیشبینی مصرف انرژی و هزینهها، از الگوریتمهای تقویتکننده گرادیان (GBR)، تقویتکننده گرادیان پیشرفته (XGBR) و جنگل تصادفی (RFR) استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که مدل GBR با ضریب تبیین (R2) 99/0 و خطای حداقل برابر با 97/251 بهترین عملکرد را در پیشبینی انرژی و هزینهها دارد. همچنین، تحلیل حساسیت با روش SHAPمشخص کرد که کود حیوانی و برق بیشترین تأثیر را بر مصرف انرژی دارند، درحالیکه مدیریت آب و کودهای شیمیایی نقش کلیدی در سودآوری اقتصادی ایفا میکنند .نتایج نشان داد که بهینهسازی مصرف انرژی در تولید گل محمدی از طریق کاهش مصرف برق و کودها امکانپذیر است و استفاده از یادگیری ماشین نیز بهعنوان یک ابزار کارآمد در پیشبینی و مدیریت نهادههای کشاورزی پیشنهاد میشود. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
گیاهان دارویی؛ گل محمدی؛ مدیرت انرژی؛ اقتصادی | ||
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